I study how parenthood affects women’s labor market outcomes and gender inequality, using quasi-experimental variation in the success of assisted conception procedures. I introduce a method for bounding the effects under minimal assumptions by leveraging women’s complete assisted conception histories. The method simultaneously addresses selective fertility timing and timing-dependent effects. Using administrative Dutch data, I find sizable and persistent effects on women’s work hours and income, which account for up to half of post-child gender inequality in these outcomes. I also disentangle and quantify how selective timing and timing-dependent effects bias conventional estimators, providing insight into the conflicting findings in the literature. My approach is applicable to other settings where individuals are quasi-experimentally assigned to one state but may enter others either through direct selection or by opting into quasi-experimental reassignment.
Journal of Public Economics, October 2023
I study how retirement delays in one generation affect fertility in the subsequent generation. I use administrative Dutch data and exploit the 2006 Dutch pension reform. The reform induced individuals born from January 1, 1950 onward to delay retirement while exempting those born earlier. I find that this reduced fertility among women with reform-affected mothers. The reduction is likely permanent and economically significant. I supplement my analysis with survey evidence and argue that the fertility reduction is driven by reduced grandparental child care supply. My results suggest that delaying retirement may undermine the goal of balancing pension systems through a resulting fertility reduction.